Canadian Trade on Track for Healthy Growth

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By Mark Szakonyi, Journal of Commerce Sep 02, 2014

Canadian export growth is slated to rise to 4.7 percent this year and 7.7 percent in 2015, as global and particularly U.S. demand builds, non-energy shipments rise, and the Canadian dollar weakens, according to the Royal Bank of Canada.

That predicted increase in exports comes after outbound shipment growth of just 2.2 percent last year compared with 2012, said Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada. Canadian import growth, however, is expected to take a bit longer to heat up, with inbound shipments slated to expand this year only 1 percent from 2013, following a 1.1 percent gain last year. Desjardins expects Canadian imports in 2015 to rise 5.1 percent year-over-year.

Global trade volume growth has accelerated, but the pace has been “disappointing” this year. Trade has been expanding at a pace of roughly 2.75 percent compared to a historical pace of about 4.75 percent.

That’s a result of lower U.S. economic growth in the first quarter because of a harsh winter, along with slower economic activity in the Eurozone and China, Desjardins said during a Thursday webinar hosted by JOC.com. Geopolitical crises, ranging from sanctions on Russia for meddling in Ukraine to a sharp uptick in violence in Iraq, have also likely pulled down global trade volume.

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